Chronicles
“Chronicles” is an independent research project created by activist Aleksei Miniailo and a team of experts — social scientists, analysts and big data specialists.
Our mission is to provide a deeper and more complex data on how Russians perceive the war in Ukraine and how it affects their lives. We aim not just to collect statistics, but to reveal a complex and multifaceted picture of public opinion, going beyond simplistic figures and propaganda clichés.
We conduct surveys on a regular basis to track the dynamics of public opinion. This allows us to notice shifts in public opinion that may not be obvious in a one-off survey. Even if people answer questions in ways that they believe are socially acceptable, changes in responses over time may indicate shifts in their actual beliefs and attitudes. In addition, by conducting regular surveys and focus groups, we can see how political decisions, economic changes, or information campaigns affect Russians' attitudes toward the war.
We fight against superficial perceptions of data by showing that behind every figure there is a complex reality. Our goal is not just to provide the data, but to give as full an understanding as possible of what is happening in Russian society.
We use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods:
Regular phone polls: We conduct representative surveys across Russia using random sampling and stratification by region.
You can learn more about our methodology at Methodology.
Focus Groups: We organize group discussions in different Russian cities to gain a deeper understanding of people's motivations and attitudes.
Our research is divided into chapters, each of which reflects a particular cross-section of public opinion at a particular point in time. This allows us to track how Russians' attitudes towards war and other important issues change over a long period of time.
The most recent research:
Results of 2 years of war and citizens' expectations from the “special electoral operation”
23–29 January 2024
The Chronicles research project was created by activist Aleksei Miniailo and a team of independent experts — social scientists, analysts and big data specialists. We are not affiliated with any political forces.
The aim of the project is to provide a deeper and more complex data on how Russians of different ages and professions perceive the war in Ukraine and life in Russia against the backdrop of the hostilities.
We research Russian society: we regularly conduct all-Russian representative phone polls and focus groups in different Russian cities. Then, in consultation with the best social scientists, we carefully analyze the information we receive and publish our reports. We want to make the data available to a wide range of people, and for this purpose we both publish anonymized databases for professionals and translate complex data into graphs and explanations understandable by wide audience.
Chronicles research project is organized by activist Alexey Minyailo alexey.minyaylo@gmail.com
Vsevolod Bederson has PhD in political sciences, is an author of publications in analytical media, and a leader of original courses on society and politics.
Chronicles advocates a deep and nuanced understanding of the situation in Russian society. One of the project's objectives is to problematise the public opinion that polls produce. We show that it's inprudent to blindly trust the figures and we call for a critical evaluation of the data obtained as a result of polls. Therefore, we do not give just bare numbers, but conceptualize them in order to see the fullest possible picture. We aim not just to collect data, but to reveal a complex and multifaceted picture of public opinion.
Moreover, we do not stop at static data: our task is to track the dynamics of public opinion in order to show how — and whether — Russians' attitudes towards the war are changing over time.
We follow the principles of openness and transparency. All our data: anonymised data sets, questionnaires and analytical reports for each poll are available on our GitHub page.
Chronicles is an opportunity to hear the voice of Russians and understand how the events in Ukraine affect our lives.
The Chronicles team are professional social scientists and analysts. We cannot name all the team members because some of them live in Russia and may face problems and persecution because of their work with Chronicles.
The Chronicles research project investigates Russians' attitudes towards the war in Ukraine by conducting regular representative all-Russia phone polls and gathering focus groups in different cities. We aim not just to collect numbers, but to reveal a complex and multifaceted picture of public opinion.
We publish our datasets and welcome collaboration. We believe in openness and collaboration, so we publish all our anonymized data-sets at GitHub and we welcome anyone who would like to make their own research based on our data or who has ideas about new ways to evaluate Russians' attitude towards the war.
We are against simplifications. We believe that you can't just blindly trust the isolated numbers from polls in a wartime dictatorship. Simplified perception of polling data, when people take isolated data and draw far-reaching or unambiguous conclusions from it, leads to a distorted picture of reality. For example, many quote the percentage of Russians who "support" for the special military operation, but few are aware that almost the half of "supporters" would also support a "soft" loss in a war if it leads to peace and withdrawal of troops.
As one of our experts says: ‘People take a figure obtained in a survey and instead of asking additional questions about that figure and trying to understand what it means, they immediately draw some very big conclusions from it — and most often shouty, clickbait conclusions.
To avoid this, we analyze the data in context, combining answers to different questions, looking for underlying causes and motives, segmenting the sample and analyzing answers to open-ended questions, offering a comprehensive interpretation of the data that changes a superficial view of the situation into a more complex and realistic one.
Chronicles research project conducts research on a regular basis: this allows us to track how Russians’ attitudes towards the war in Ukraine change over time. Such dynamics helps to see not only the current picture, but also trends in the development of public opinion.
It makes it possible to identify trends and changes. Regular polls show how the attitude of Russians to the war changes over time, and allow us to assume what factors influence these changes. Analyzing the dynamics of public opinion helps to assess the effectiveness of information campaigns and other influences on society - and, if needed, allows us to forecast possible scenarios for the development of the situation.
Regular research and data accumulation:
— Increase the reliability and validity of the results of public opinion polls,
— Make it possible to study cause-and-effect relationships between various social phenomena and changes in public opinion,
— Allow taking into account changes in the socio-political environment and adapting survey questions to the current situation,
— Create a basis for comparative research.
Thus, regular research and data accumulation are important tools for understanding public opinion and its dynamics. The Chronicles project seeks to use these tools to provide objective and up-to-date information on how Russians perceive the war in Ukraine.
We are open to co-operation with the media and are ready to share the results of our research, provide comments and expert opinions. If you are interested in a specific topic related to the theme of our research on public opinion in Russia, or if you have questions you would like answered, we are ready to further analyze our data and provide you with exclusive information. It is also possible that we add questions or topics suggested by you to our further polls if they allow us to improve our research. Contact us and together we will find answers to your questions.
Is ‘Chronicles’ a state project?
No. Chronicles is an independent research project started by activist Aleksei Miniailo and a team of independent experts — social scientists, analysts and big data specialists. We are not affiliated with any political forces, we do not receive government or government-affiliated funding. Our work is funded by Russian citizens with honest earnings (to the best of our knowledge) who are not affiliated with any political power. It is important for us to collect as much data as possible, analyze it and give not just bare figures, but as balanced, complete and real a picture of public opinion as possible — without propaganda bias.
Who is doing the research?
The Chronicles team are professional social scientists and analysts. We cannot name all the members of the team, because some of them live in Russia and may face problems and persecution because of their work with Chronicles. Those who are public about their participation can be found at here
Why do we conduct public opinion research?
The Chronicles research project investigates how Russians perceive the war in Ukraine and seeks to overcome the superficial perception of polling data to show the complex reality behind the numbers. Primitive understanding of polling data can lead to wrong conclusions and harmful policies. We regularly conduct polls and focus groups to monitor the dynamics of public opinion, identify trends and changes. Our aim is to provide an objective and multifaceted picture of what is happening, to go beyond simplistic figures and propaganda clichés to promote informed dialogue and understanding of the complex processes in Russian society.
Who funds the project?
The Chronicles research project exists thanks to the support of concerned Russian citizens who value independent research and seek an objective understanding of what is happening in the country. We accept voluntary donations from individuals who share our mission and want to help us continue our research. All our funding comes from Russian citizens with honest earnings (to the best of our knowledge) and no political or government affiliation. It is important to note that our donors have no influence on the research aims, process or results. We guarantee complete transparency of our work by publishing our anonymized datasets at GitHub.
Where can I see the project's research data?
We publish anonymised datasets, questionnaires and reports for each piece of research on our GitHub page. You are free to use these materials for research and public interest purposes (all materials are available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence) — with a mandatory link to the Chronicles research project and Chronicles website.
How to help the project?
We accept donations from Russian citizens in cryptocurrency, we spend all digital currency received on conducting social surveys and analyzing data. We work with cryptocurrency because it allows us to preserve the anonymity of our donors. If you want to make a donation and you are a Russian citizen, please mail to web@chronicles.report.
Your support will help us to continue our research and tell the world what Russians really think about the war in Ukraine. We are trying to go beyond isolated figures and superficial interpretations to show a fuller, more complex and nuanced picture of public opinion.
Your donations will allow us to continue to conduct surveys and analyze data to demonstrate that reality is more complex than the one-sided picture that propaganda paints. Together we can contribute to a better understanding of the situation.
All cryptocurrency donations go towards conducting research and analyzing the resulting data. Helping in crypto preserves the anonymity of our donors.
Please note that we seek donations only from Russian citizens — receiving money from other sources might put us in danger, because part of the team is in Russia and we risk being branded and repressed as foreign agents.
If you would like to donate in another way, please email alexey.minyaylo@gmail.com.
Cryptocurrencies we accept:
Bitcoin (BTС) bc1qzcpnuhd0y54p5puqkmcnnf6wdtae46awfhcz6y
Ether (ETH) 0xEED57709bE06929a16cF2A0E23774d49B28c0aBE
Tether (USDT) 1JX1d9j5xJ872jmFQqahehXxZFPXg9BJkU
USDC ERC20 0xEED57709bE06929a16cF2A0E23774d49B28c0aBE
DAI Stablecoin 0xEED57709bE06929a16cF2A0E23774d49B28c0aBE